New York City Covid-19 cases spiked today. Stock market futures tank

22 June:  A private testing firm (Legkoverny Testing) today reported 10,000 newly found Covid-19 cases in New York City today. Stock market futures immediately tanked.  They had been going around the Bronx for several weeks offering free antibody testing to anyone wanting it.  Some 30,000 residents took up the offer.

Legkoverny knew where to go to get these results. https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/ — communities of color in the Bronx where positive tests for the antibody occur in up to  50% of the population.

Fortunately, officials noted that a positive antibody test means that the individual had been infected and recovered, as all 30,000 or so weren’t on respirator in ICUs.  In fact they were walking around the streets of the city, and most had never been sick.

This sort of thing has not been noted by the mainstream press reporting an upsurge in Covid-19 cases.

Increasing the number of tests done daily will increase the number of  positive tests for cases.  Every state in the country has been increasing the number of tests done daily.

Now Covid-19 used to mean, clinical illness with the SARS-CoV-19, the pandemic virus.  It isn’t being reported that way now, just a positive antibody test for the virus appears to be enough

Here’s Florida’s weekly report of positive antibody tests for the week ending 19 June — http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/serology/serology_latest.pdf.  200,000+ people were tested, and 8,627 were found positive which is nearly 1/3 of the total new cases for that week.

So if you want to know if the number of serious cases is increasing (which is  what we all would like to know), forget these these numbers, which are partly due to increased testing.  Concentrate on two statistics (assuming you can get them)

l. The daily death rate from the virus — even better a 7 day moving average as Georgia does

2. The number of cases currently in the hospital.

Not every state gives out this information, but Massachusetts does.

There will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces if easing the lockdown restrictions doesn’t cause an increase in illness and death, which is probably why the pandemic is being reported this way.

Also ignore daily spikes in the number of cases — this can be an artifact of the way cases filter in to state health departments.  For an early example of this please see  — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2020/05/28/data-cherry-picking-101/

Good luck

 

 

 

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Comments

  • Mark Thorson  On June 22, 2020 at 10:59 pm

    I’m sure you meant SARS-CoV-2, not SARS-CoV-19.

    • Mark Thorson  On June 22, 2020 at 11:05 pm

      SARS-CoV-19 is also one of the links under Related.

  • Eugene  On June 23, 2020 at 10:57 pm

    r is an unconfirmed story making the rounds that Hospitals are testing for the virus regardless of the reason a patient is there. If someone dies from heart attack, gun shot or any other reason and they happen to test positive the death is counted as a SARS 2 death because the federal re-imbursement is higher.

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