Yes it’s hot, but

A few years ago, before things calmed down, hurricanes were predicted to become more frequent and more severe. So although global warming fans predicted higher temperatures, they also predicted this. Here’s an example
and another —

So far this year (and the major part of the hurricane season is about to begin) the Atlantic hurricane season is the quietest it’s ever been. There have only been 4 tropical storms this year and no hurricanes at all not even one. One of the 4 storms occurred in January, which is rather bizarre.

Scientific theories when faced with a falsified prediction are usually modified or abandoned.  Not so with global warming.  It’s just been rebranded as climate change.

There is a rather imperfect measure of the amount of power produced by the storms of the season, called Accumulated Cyclonic Energy (ACE). The average per year is an ACE of 110. This year (so far) it’s only 6.

ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours, and is then scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACE for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season. The caveat to using ACE as a measure of the activity of a season is that it does not take the physical size of the hurricane or tropical storm into account which is why it’s imperfect.

If you know any physics, ACE is velocity squared * time — which is not the dimension of energy (it’s acceleration). I wonder if satellite radar is good enough to give us ground windspeed over small areas, which could be summed over the hurricane area if the division was fine enough. This would allow us to tell big storms from smaller ones. Unfortunately, there would be no way to compare this new measure to ones in the past such as ACE.

Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: