Chip Wars by Chris Miller — Part IV — beating China with silicon will be a lot harder than beating Russia

China as shown by Huawei has the capacity to design state of the art chips, and they certainly have the brains.  Morris Chang did a lot of his work at Texas Instruments before running TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company).  Jensen Huang runs NVIDIA.  In retirement, I pass the time by reading 5 journals (Cell, Nature, Neuron, Science, PNAS), whose interesting material I report on in this blog.  You will not find a single issue without at least one high quality, state of the art article from mainland China.  These articles were not chosen by affirmative action.

So we beat Russia because they could steal and copy our chips, but could not manufacture them.

China certainly has tried to steal our manufacturing expertise — this is detailed pp. 306 – 310 with a Chinese company called Jinhua which stole manufacturing details (translation: hard won knowhow from years of experimentation) from the only American company (Micron) making memory chips.  After much argumentation between National Security types and Treasury in the Trump administration, the US banned export by US firms to Jinhua of chipmaking tools, and Jinhua stopped making them in a few months.

Xi realizes just how dependent China is on machinery and software produced elsewhere, but replicating it in country is nearly impossible given its price and political meddling (see next paragraph).

The factory making chips is called a fab (for fabrication plant).  China certainly tried with something called SMIC, but the politicians that controlled them meddled incessantly in business decisions.  Every governor wanted a chip fab in his province, so China wound up with an inefficient collection of small facilities spread across the country (p. 251).

The book contains a blow by blow description of how the USA lost the ability to make the most advanced fabrication facilities and most advanced lithography machines — needed by the fabs.  It’s too painful to recount here.

So our (fragile) lead on China depends on manufacturing prowess, as well as the brains we import and integrate from all over the world.

I suggest you read Miller’s book, even if you’re not a techie.  Your future may depend on it

 

 

Chip Wars by Chris Miller — Part II beating Russia with silicon

Just about everything in this post is from Chip Wars by Chris Miller, some are direct quotes, others are paraphrases.   A few things are my own, but they’re pretty obvious.

Even though I was vitally interested in computers as a neurologist starting in the early 70s and got one as soon as I could afford it (an Alpha Micro which I really couldn’t), Chip Wars covering the early history of silicon based computers taught me a lot.  It starts with Shockley’s invention of the transistor in 1948 and goes from there.   I won’t try to summarize that, but if you want an extremely well written early history of the period, read this book.  It isn’t dry and the personalities of the main characters are well fleshed out.

What I didn’t realize was just how much of the early development of silicon computers was driven by the military.  In particular Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funded a lot of academics and their research into computation. Today every chip company uses tools from one of 3 chip design companies founded and built by graduates of DARPA programs

Guided munitions during the early Vietnam war used vacuum tubes that were hand soldered (Sparrow III) they broke down 2/3 of the time only 10% hit their target.  Bombs fell 420 feet from target.    Some 800 bombs had tried to take out a bridge in Vietnam and failed.   A set of wings was added to direct the bomb’s flight along with a laser guidance system which worked as follows.  A small silicon wafer was divided into 4 quadrants and placed behind a lens.  The laser reflecting off the target would shine through the lens onto the silicon,.  If the bomb veered off course one quadrant would receive more of the laser’s energy than the others and circuits would move the wings to reorient the bomb’s trajectory so the laser was shining straight through the lens.    A simple laser sensor and a few transistors made the bomb accurate.  This was 1972.  Spoiler alert — we still lost.

Photolithography is a crucial technology for drawing circuits on silicon, and it is mentioned many times throughout the book.   It’s basically a simple idea— turning a microscope lens upside down to make something big look smaller.  It was initiated by  Lathrop at Texas Instruments in 1958  It took thousands of experiments and a lot of interaction with suppliers etc to make it work.   There will be much more about photolithography in the next posts.

When owning a copy machine was a crime and no one without security clearance could use a computer, Russia had no way to educate a truly huge number of computer programmers.  So they basically used espionage to copy our technology.

This didn’t work.   The Soviet copy it strategy was flawed, because they couldn’t scale up the manufacturing process reliably, something Grove at Intel and Chang at Texas Instruments fixated on and spent countless hours improving.  Moreover the US had access to technology in optics, chemistry purified materials.  They knew the temperature at which chemicals needed to be heated or how long photoresist should be exposed to light.  Every step of the process of making chips involved specialized knowledge that was rarely shared outside a specific company — often not written down.    So it couldn’t be stolen.

As Silicon valley crammed more transistors onto silicon chips, building them became steadily harder.    Russia stole the equipment to make them, but they had no way to get spare parts.  The Russian military didn’t trust the chips produced in country, so they minimized the use of electronics and computers in military systems.    The math they put into guidance computers was simpler to minimize the strain on the onboard computer.

The copy it strategy left the Russians 5 years behind.

Russia’s defense chief of staff Ogarkov knew this and said in ’83 to Leslie Gelb  “The Cold War is over and you have won”.  Interestingly, Star Wars begun the same year is nowhere mentioned in the book.  It was derided as implausible, but the Russians knew they couldn’t match it.

The Soviets only customer for computers was the military, while the US had a large civilian market which created companies with a wide variety of expertise in everything needed for them (pure silicon wafers, advance optic for lithography).  The Russians also had no international supply chain. The Gulf War ’91 on Saddam Hussein — US smart weapons (Paveway) using more advanced electrons decimated the best equipment of Russia.

As I said in part I (https://luysii.wordpress.com/2024/03/10/chip-wars-by-chris-miller-part-i/) Chip Wars is really about manufacturing, not the abstract computational problems and programming I was interested in.

The denouemont came in 1991 with the Gulf War. US smart weapons (Paveway) using more advanced electronics decimated the best equipment of Russia.

Things haven’t changed much in Russia. p335

“The fact that Russia faced shortages of guided cruise missiles within several weeks of attacking Ukraine is partly due to the sorry state of its semiconductor industry.”

Next up: The coming competition with China

Chip Wars by Chris Miller — part I

There are no loading docks in Washington D. C. said my brother who lives there.  He’s right.  D. C. doesn’t produce anything physical, as do most, if not all, people reading this blog.  I didn’t meet anyone involved in manufacturing until I was nearly fifty, and that only because the head of a local factory was an amateur cellist.

Chip Wars is an extremely important book.  I picked it up because it’s about computers, and neurologists are all interested in computers in the hope that understanding them will tell us something about how the brain works.  But Chip Wars is really about manufacturing and its contents should be read and understood by the general public and not just techies, although a technical background certainly won’t hurt, and I’ll assume you have some.   The larger and more important issues aren’t technical and the technical stuff can be skipped.

So this is a description of the contents of Chip Wars rather than a review, so I could now become president of Harvard having explicitly avoided plagiarism.

I also have skin in the game as one son and daughter-in-law and 2 grandkids  live in Taiwan, which is one of two places where the state of the art in computer chip manufacture is located (e.g. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company aka TSMC ).   The other is South Korea.   TSMC is probably why Xi hasn’t invaded long ago, and why the USA has a compelling (and nonpolitical) reason for protecting it (and Taiwan).

So what will follow in subsequent posts is a blow by blow description of the contents, with a few remarks by me.  You need to know how the USA came to its present sorry state in two crucial technologies, chip manufacturing and lithography.

Stay tuned.

A final true fact so improbable that it could never be put in a novel.  The brother of my cellist friend was a literature professor at Cornell taking over from Nabokov and my son took a course from him.