Tag Archives: Wuhan flu

Good riddance 2020

It’s no good being right if nobody listens. It was clear to me in late January that we would be in a pandemic as my post of 27 January 2020 below will show. The press in those early months did not cover itself in glory. Here’s a link to a bunch of press headlines — forget that the site is a bit dicey — I remember reading many of these at the time — https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1245341299320016897. Why the CDC didn’t figure this out is anyone’s guess. The problem wasn’t lack of staff, but lack of brains. We’re all playing the price.

What to do about the Wuhan flu

This was published 27 Jan ’20.  Nothing has been altered (other than this).

What to do about the Wuhan flu?  The short answer is to lay in a month or two of dried food and drink, and have plenty of bottled water around.

The long answer depends on whether the new corona virus (called 2019-nCOV) becomes a pandemic and if the (symptomatic) case fatality rate continues at 3.5% (based on 80 deaths in 2,800 cases as of yesterday).

With a son, Chinese daughter in law and two grandchildren living in Hong Kong, I’ve followed the outbreak ever since hearing of it 1 January.

The best and most current source of info about the outbreak is the South China Morning Post — https://www.scmp.com.  It is in English and is not a government mouth piece.

Here’s the bad news

(1) As of a few days ago the virus had been found in 29/31 Chinese provinces.  This means that confining the virus to China is nearly impossible — how do you cut off a billion or so people from the rest of the world?

(2) Here’s more from today

  • Hong Kong University  faculty of medicine dean Gabriel Leung says research shows self-sustaining human-to-human transmission is already happening in all major mainland cities.   Here’s a link
  • https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
  •  Why is this significant?  You have to know how docs operate.  When I wanted information about some issue or disease, I’d call a doc whose opinion and background I respected.  It is likely that Leung made this statement after calling med school deans he personally knew in major mainland cities.

(3) There is no treatment, in the sense of stopping the virus in its tracks.  All we have is supportive care, oxygen rest, medication for fever, bronchodilators.  This is true for the vast majority of viruses.  Remember the joke that modern medical science can cure a cold in 14 days, but otherwise it takes two weeks.

(4) We know that you don’t have to be clinically ill to transmit the disease.  Screening new arrivals for fever is well and good but that won’t totally prevent spread.

(5) Some individuals are what is called ‘superspreaders’ — one individual infected 15 hospital personnel.

(6) I wouldn’t hope for a specific treatment any time soon — look how long it took to get any treatment for AIDS, despite the huge amount of resources devoted to it.

Here is some good news. It is quite possible that there are many more cases out there with people who were either asymptomatic or  just mildly ill.  The classic example is polio, in which for every case with paralysis there were 99 cases with mild GI illness or nothing at all.

This will need to wait until we can test people for antibodies to 2019-nCOV to find out how many people have had it.  This is probably at least a month away

Vaccines (if they can be made) are even more months away.  We’ll just have to hunker down and hope for the best.

Why lay in dried food ?– in a pandemic people will panic and clear out all food they can get their hands on.  There were pictures of empty bins in a Wuhan food market last week.

People are getting serious about it.  From Reuters -“U.S. President Donald Trump offered China whatever help it needed on Monday”.  It would be nice to have some of our people from the Center for Disease Control over there. Hopefully the Chinese won’t be too proud to accept the offer.

Addendum 28 Jan — apparently the US (in the form of the CDC) is begging China to let them help out — sad — why should they have to beg?  Apparently the first overture was 3 weeks ago ! ! ! ! — https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047967/china-coronavirus-washington-asks-beijing-permission-send-health-team

The very good news from New York

Today’s news from New York is very good indeed.   But first a joke

If one man tells you that you look like a horse

Ignore him.

If a second man tells you that you look like a horse

Pause and consider

If a third man tells you that you look like a horse

Buy a collar

 

The very good news from New York is that nearly 1 in 7 New Yorkers has antibodies to the new coronavirus.

For those not sure what having an antibody to the virus means as opposed to having the virus itself — see the explanation after the **** at the end of the post.

The New York study is the third one this week.

Study #1 was from Santa Clara County California, by people from Stanford which is located there.  Briefly, the authors advertised for people to be tested for antibodies (hardly a random sample).  They projected that about 4% of the people in a 2 million population county having antibodies to the new coronavirus.

To say the study was not universally loved is an understatement — https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/

And

The Stanford one will likely have to be retracted as it’s been widely reported that there were severe methodological errors and even some basic math errors in the analysis. Also, the current antibody tests are essentially worthless given the high false positive rate (I believe the CEO of Roche made that exact claim today).

The joke tells us to Ignore him.  

Study #2 was from LA and also found that about 4% of the study group had antibodies to the virus  Unlike the Stanford (SF) study — The LA study was composed differently in that its 863 adults were selected through a market research firm to represent the makeup of the county.

A friend  sent me the following “Last week I attended (virtually) a Princeton talk by Prof. Edward Felton dealing with COVID-19 pandemic issues.  Prof. Felton mentioned in his talk that the SARS-CoV-2 antibody tests have about a 5% false positive rate (and likewise, about a 5% false negative rate.  If this is true than the 4% antibody prevalence measured in the California tests is meaningless, right?”

The joke tells us to pause and consider

Study #3 Today’s study is from New York State—- here’s a link –https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html.

The State randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it. With more than 19.4 million people residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results imply that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

Buy a collar

All 3 studies are saying the same thing — most people aren’t terribly bothered by the virus.  In another context the following was said “It’s hard to argue with data. We’re scientists. We pay attention to data, we don’t try to un-explain them.”

How can I say that the news is good?  After all,Governor Cuomo is right; the numbers are horrible — 19,453 fatalities and 263,754 cases in the state. But the numbers also mean that the overall mortality is under 1% of those who have been infected with the virus.

This means that we are far closer than we thought to relaxing the restrictions on personal and economic activity than we thought, and that most people are naturally immune to severe complications of the virus.

Addendum 24 April — Today’s Science has critiques of study #1 and study #2 and several more (but not including the NY study) — here’s the link https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6489/350 — Not mentioned in the article is the fact that all the studies point the same way — at least a 10 fold increase in the percentage of antibodies vs. the percentage of patients in whom the viral genome can be found.

****

The 263,754 ‘cases’ in New York State, were determined by finding the actual genome (RNA in this case) of the virus in a person.  It’s like seeing a real bear which can do you some damage.  Antibodies to the virus are made by an individual who has been infected by the virus.  Antibodies (proteins) and genomes (RNA) are completely different chemically.      Antibodies are like seeing the tracks of the bear without the bear itself.

A happy thought

Gloria in excelsis deo, we are finally getting data on how much of the new coronavirus is out there (the virus’s official name is SARS-CoV-2, the disease it causes is COVID-19, that’s a mouthful for the politically correct, but Wuhan flu or Chinese is also accurate and is at least easier to pronounce).  We now have two studies from California (LA and SF) in which the prevalence of antibodies to the virus is around 4% (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-20/coronavirus-serology-testing-la-county — 3 days earlier the SF study said the same thing).

The presence of antibodies to the virus means that the individual has been infected with it, and has probably fought it off, as these people were picked in a random sample and were not hospitalized.  This is hundreds of thousands of people in each city.

That’s not enough for herd immunity, BUT — insert happy thought here

What if the 96% of the population not showing the antibodies were exposed but didn’t get the virus?  Suppose that previous colds had given them immunity (as I proposed in an earlier post — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2020/04/05/a-way-to-end-the-pandemic/).

Then the epidemic in the USA, horrible as it’s been, has peaked.  Certainly the number of cases in hospitals in NYC has stabilized, and they’re shipping respirators to NJ.

How would you know?  Just repeat the study each week.  If the percentage of people showing antibodies remains the same, those who are going to get the virus have already gotten it.  It seems inconceivable to me that with hundreds thousands of people in LA and SF unknowingly wandering around before social distancing, they haven’t already spread it to all and sundry.

As always, there are caveats about this.  The main one is the accuracy of the antibody test — specificity primarily — are the antibodies just to the new coronavirus or are they picking up other things.  Hopefully not, and Stanford (who did the study) should be state of the art.

Very much against the idea, is the lack of immunity among the vulnerable — it spread like wildfire through the Soldier’s Home in Holyoke, Mass.  The statistics are truly ghastly. There were 210 vets living at the home.  52 have died due to COVID19, 94 are alive but positive for the virus, so 69.5% of the vets have been infected.

A bombshell that wasn’t

Yesterday, a friend sent me the following

” Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV

Contrary to the narrative that is being pushed by the mainstream that the COVID 19 virus was the result of a natural mutation and that it was transmitted to humans from bats via pangolins, Dr Luc Montagnier the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983 disagrees and is saying that the virus was man made.”

Pretty impressive isn’t it?  Montagnier says that in the 30,000 nucleotide sequence of the new coronovirus SARS-CoV-2 he found sequences of the AIDS virus (HIV1).  Worse, the biolab in Wuhan was working both on HIV1 and coronaviruses.  It seems remote that a human could have been simultaneously infected with both, but these things happen all the time in the lab, intentionally or not.

It really wouldn’t take much to prove Montagnier’s point.  Matching 20 straight nucleotides from HIV1 to the Wuhan coronavirus is duck soup now that we have the sequences of both.  HIV1 has a genome with around 10,000 nucleotides, and the Wuhan coronavirus has a genome of around 30,000.  Recall that each nucleotide can be one of 4 things: A, U, G, C.  In the genome the nucleotides are ordered, and differences in the order mean different things — consider the two words united and untied.

Suppose Montagnier found a 20 nucleotide sequence from HIV1 in the new coronavirus genome. How many possibilities are there for such a sequence?  Well for a 2 nucleotide sequence there are 4 x 4 == 4^2 = 16,  for a 3 nucleotide sequence 4 x 4 x 4 == 4^3 = 64.  So for 20 nucleotides there are 4^20 possible sequences == 1,099,511,622,776 different possibilities.  So out of the HIV1 genome there are 10,000 – 20 such sequences, and in the coronavirus sequence there are 30,000 -20  such sequences so there are 10,000 times 30,000 ways for a 20 nucleotide sequence to match up between the two genomes.  That 300,000,000 ways for a match to occur by chance — or less than .1%.  If you’re unsatisfied with those odds than make the match larger.  25 nucleotides should satisfy the most skeptical.

But there’s a rub — as Carl Sagan has said  “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”  Apparently Montagnier hasn’t published the sequence of HIV1 he claims to have found in the coronavirus.   If anyone knows what it is please write a comment.

Then there’s the fact that Montagnier appears to have gone off his rocker. In 2009 he published a  paper (in a journal he apparently built) which concludes that diluted DNA from pathogenic bacterial and viral species is able to emit specific radio waves” and that “these radio waves [are] associated with ‘nanostructures’ in the solution that might be able to recreate the pathogen”.

Sad.  Just as one of the greatest chemists of the 20th century will be remembered for his crackpot ideas about vitamin C (Linus Pauling), Montagnier may be remembered for this.

On second thought, there is no reason to need Montagnier and his putative sequence at all. The sequences of both genomes are known.     Matching any 20 nucleotide sequence from HIV1 to any of the 30,000 – 20 20 nucleotide sequences from the Wuhan flu is a problem right out of Programming 101.  It’s a matter of a few loops, if thens and go to’s.  . If you’re ambitious  you could start with smaller sequences say 5 – 10 nucleotides, find a match, move to the next largest size sequence and repeat until you find the largest contiguous sequence of nucleotides in HIV1 to be found in the coronavirus.

You can read about the Wuhan lab in an article from Nature in 2017 — https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

Some sanity (and hope) about the Wuhan flu

There is an excellent article in the following link,  https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/03/public-urged-to-ramp-up-social-distancing-increase-coronavirus-tests/

Epidemiology Professor Marc Lipsitch, head of the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, called the pace of coronavirus testing in the U.S. “utterly inadequate” and “a debacle” that robs public health officials of information crucial to devising an effective response and protecting health care workers. Testing has been so slow that no one knows the extent of the U.S. epidemic, though scientists guess at somewhere between “tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands” of cases.

Let’s say that is true that 100,000 people in the USA have already been infected.  What does that mean?  It means that most people with it aren’t very sick (we don’t have 100K people in ICUs on respirators).  This is the hope anyway

The CDC monopolized testing for Corona virus for a while and then distributed faulty test kits (while you may not like Trump, this isn’t his fault). So we have no way of knowing what’s out there.

That’s information gap #1 — we don’t know how many people are actively infected with the virus

Information gap #2 is even worse, and very likely longer to be corrected.  We don’t know how many people are out there who have fought the infection off and are no longer sick.  This will require a test for the antibodies to the virus they’ve developed (something that doesn’t happen right away during the acute infection although that’s where it begins).  Such information  is not available now, and likely won’t be for a month or two.

Addendum: Not everyone reading this knows what an antibody is so this is in response to a few questions.  Antibodies are proteins made by your body in response to an invading organism (which kill it).  This is why your kids have measles, mumps and rubella vaccines — they give the kids proteins from the viruses (not the whole organism), and your kids react as if infected by the intact virus (which is why they often seem to have the flu after vaccination), producing antibodies to those proteins, so when the real thing comes sneaking around, your kid’s antibodies recognize it and fight it off.  Having an antibody to the Wuhan flu is perfect evidence that you’ve been infected with it (even if the virus is long gone).  They aren’t something you’d have normally.  It isn’t simple to develop and validate a test for anti-Wuhan antibodies which why I think it will be a while before we have a test we can trust.

This will tell us just how much to worry about the virus.  Most reading this are too young  to remember the polio epidemic (which also put people on respirators). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio  After antibody tests finally became available it was found that only one out of every one hundred people infected developed paralysis.

 

4 Interesting papers

Here are brief summaries of 4 recent very interesting papers, each of which may be the subject of a future post (now that I’m not as worried about the effects of the Wuhan flu on family members over in Hong Kong).  They are likely behind a pay wall unfortunately

l. Watching an endoplasmic reticulum extruded tubule cut a P-body in half. Very significant as we begin to appreciate the phase transitions going on in our cells — for an overview of this see — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2018/12/16/bye-bye-stoichiometry/.

The paper(s) itself [ Science vol. 367 pp. 507 – 508, 537, eaay7108 ’20 ]

2. Watching microglia caress the cell body (soma) of neurons [ Science vol. 367 pp. 510 – 511, 528 – 537 ’20 ].  They’re actually rather creepy, extending processes and feeling up neurons, removing synapses from processes.  They use receptors for ATP and ADP to detect when a neuron is in trouble.  A new cellular specialization is described — Somatic Purinergic Junctions — a combination of mitochondria, reticular membrane structures, vesicle-like membrane structures and clusters of a particular voltage gated potassium channel (Kv2.1)

3. The ubiquitin wars inside a macrophage invaded by TB [ Nature vol. 577 pp. 682 – 688 ’20 ]  Ubiquitin initially was thought to be a tag marking a protein for destruction.  It’s much more complicated than that.  A host E3 ubiquitin ligase (ANAPC2, a core subunit of the anaphase promoting complex/cyclosome) promotes the attachment of lysine #11 linked ubiquitin chains to lysine #76 of the TB protein Rv0222.  In some way this helps Rv022 to suppress the expression of proinflammatory cytokines.

4. FACT (FAcilitates Chromatin Transcription)  is a heterodimer of two proteins which form a heterodimer [ Nature vol. 577 pp. 426 – 431 ’20 ].  If you’ve ever wondered how the monstrously large holoenzyme of RNA polymerase II, manages to work its way around the nucleosome copying one strand, you need to know about FACT, which basically grabs the disclike nucleosome with DNA wrapped around it twice, grabs both H2A-H2B dimers and holds them outside while pol II passes.  You have to wonder which came first the nucleosome or FACT. Neither would be of much use by themselves.  Probably they both grew up together, but it’s hard to envision the intermediate stages.

The Wuhan flu epidemic in China has likely peaked

Could the Wuhan flu epidemic in China be peaking, or am I indulging in wishful thinking because of a son, daughter-in-law and two grandkids living in Hong Kong?  Possibly but here’s why.

The South China Morning post (https://www.scmp.com) keeps a total of the cases of the flu in China and worldwide.  The figures change throughout the day, but they don’t vary too much during the US day (Chinese night).

Looking at the totals in the US evening

From 2 Feb to 3 Feb there were just under 3,000 new cases

From 3 Feb to 4 Feb there were just over 3,000 new cases

From 4 Feb to 5 Feb there just under 4,000 new cases (3891)

From 5 Feb to 6 Feb there were slightly fewer newer case (3789)

From 6 Feb to 7 Feb there were definitely fewer new cases (3143)

 

Even though the totals are horrible — 31,161 cases in China (worldwide 31,482) with 636 worldwide deaths as of 5AM Eastern Standard time  7 Feb (USA), this is the second time in the China epidemic that there have been fewer new cases (and more importantly with a significant reduction from yesterday’s increase). This means we are likely at or over the peak of spreading of the epidemic (although the number of cases will continue to increase).

The number of new cases probably doesn’t contain any false positives, because of the thoroughness of the way they’ve been checked.

Caveat — only those lucky enough to make it into a hospital get checked, and stories I’ve read about how crowded they are and the long waits for care and admission, means that the number of cases are likely much higher.

Note that I include both the Chinese totals, and those worldwide as when the disease spreads worldwide (as it has) the total number of new cases will continue to increase (even if the Chinese new cases drops).

Having flown back and forth to Hong Kong several times, you couldn’t ask for a better way to spread the flu than cooping up 100+ people packed cheek by jowl in the steerage section of a large airplane for 16 – 18 hours.   This is particularly true since we now know asymptomatic people can spread the disease.

A very smart friend asked me ‘Why the excitement since influenza in the USA causes many more deaths each year’.  Well from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) we have the following — https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlhttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

“CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”

That’s quite a range (5 fold) for number of illnesses and number of deaths, but the ratio is the same.  So what is the mortality of the flu we have in the USA?  Well 12,000/9,000,000 = .0013 or .13% which is 20 – 30 times less than the current known mortality rate of 2 – 3% for Wuhan flu.

Remember the figures are for symptomatic diagnosed cases.  There may well be many more cases with minimal or no symptoms.  Remember for every case of paralytic poliomyelitis, there were 99 infections where that didn’t happen.  Hopefully soon, we’ll have a way to test for human antibodies to Wuhan flu with specific antibodies (not all antibodies are specific) and we’ll find out the true prevalence of Wuhan flu infection.

Could the Wuhan flu epidemic in China be peaking?

Could the Wuhan flu epidemic in China be peaking, or am I indulging in wishful thinking because of a son, daughter-in-law and two grandkids living in Hong Kong?  Possibly but here’s why.

The South China Morning post (https://www.scmp.com) keeps a total of the cases of the flu in China and worldwide.  The figures change throughout the day, but they don’t vary too much during the US day (Chinese night).

Looking at the totals in the US evening

From 2 Feb to 3 Feb there were just under 3,000 new cases

From 3 Feb to 4 Feb there were just over 3,000 new cases

From 4 Feb to 5 Feb there just under 4,000 new cases (3891)

From 5 Feb to 6 Feb there were slightly fewer newer case (3789)

Addendum 6 Feb (USA) 9:20 PM 7 Feb China  (10:20 AM) — the news is good — the total number of new cases from 6 Feb to 7 Feb in China dropped significantly (967).  Hopefully this is accurate, and not due to some reporting glitch, or suppression of the numbers by directive from above.  If so, the epidemic has peaked, and all people have to do is stay indoors and not infect others.   Let’s hope this holds up.  Tomorrow’s count will be very important.   End Addendum 6 Feb 

Even though the totals are horrible — 28,396 cases worldwide with 566 deaths the morning of 6 Feb (USA), this is the first time in the China epidemic that there have been fewer new cases. This means we may be at the peak of epidemic spreading (although the number of cases will continue to increase).

The number of new cases probably doesn’t contain any false positives, because of the thoroughness of the way they’ve been checked.

Caveat — only those lucky enough to make it into a hospital get checked, and stories I’ve read about how crowded they are and the long waits for care and admission, means that the number of cases are likely much higher.

Note that I include only the Chinese totals, as when the disease spreads worldwide (as it has) the total number of new cases will continue to increase (even if the Chinese new cases drops).

Having flown back and forth to Hong Kong several times, you couldn’t ask for a better way to spread the flu than cooping up 100+ people packed cheek by jowl in the steerage section of a large airplane for 16 – 18 hours.   This is particularly true since we now know asymptomatic people can spread the disease.

A very smart friend asked me ‘Why the excitement since influenza in the USA causes many more deaths each year’.  Well from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) we have the following — https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.htmlhttps://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

“CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.”

That’s quite a range (5 fold) for number of illnesses and number of deaths, but the ratio is the same.  So what is the mortality of the flu we have in the USA?  Well 12,000/9,000,000 = .0013 or .13% which is 20 – 30 times less than the current known mortality rate of 2 – 3% for Wuhan flu.

Remember the figures are for symptomatic diagnosed cases.  There may well be many more cases with minimal or no symptoms.  Remember for every case of paralytic poliomyelitis, there were 99 infections where that didn’t happen.  Hopefully soon, we’ll have a way to test for human antibodies to Wuhan flu with specific antibodies (not all antibodies are specific) and we’ll find out the true prevalence of Wuhan flu infection.

What to do about the Wuhan flu

This was published 27 Jan ’20.  Nothing has been altered (other than this).

What to do about the Wuhan flu?  The short answer is to lay in a month or two of dried food and drink, and have plenty of bottled water around.

The long answer depends on whether the new corona virus (called 2019-nCOV) becomes a pandemic and if the (symptomatic) case fatality rate continues at 3.5% (based on 80 deaths in 2,800 cases as of yesterday).

With a son, Chinese daughter in law and two grandchildren living in Hong Kong, I’ve followed the outbreak ever since hearing of it 1 January.

The best and most current source of info about the outbreak is the South China Morning Post — https://www.scmp.com.  It is in English and is not a government mouth piece.

Here’s the bad news

(1) As of a few days ago the virus had been found in 29/31 Chinese provinces.  This means that confining the virus to China is nearly impossible — how do you cut off a billion or so people from the rest of the world?

(2) Here’s more from today

  • Hong Kong University  faculty of medicine dean Gabriel Leung says research shows self-sustaining human-to-human transmission is already happening in all major mainland cities.   Here’s a link
  • https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047813/china-coronavirus-hong-kong-medical-experts-call
  •  Why is this significant?  You have to know how docs operate.  When I wanted information about some issue or disease, I’d call a doc whose opinion and background I respected.  It is likely that Leung made this statement after calling med school deans he personally knew in major mainland cities.

(3) There is no treatment, in the sense of stopping the virus in its tracks.  All we have is supportive care, oxygen rest, medication for fever, bronchodilators.  This is true for the vast majority of viruses.  Remember the joke that modern medical science can cure a cold in 14 days, but otherwise it takes two weeks.

(4) We know that you don’t have to be clinically ill to transmit the disease.  Screening new arrivals for fever is well and good but that won’t totally prevent spread.

(5) Some individuals are what is called ‘superspreaders’ — one individual infected 15 hospital personnel.

(6) I wouldn’t hope for a specific treatment any time soon — look how long it took to get any treatment for AIDS, despite the huge amount of resources devoted to it.

Here is some good news. It is quite possible that there are many more cases out there with people who were either asymptomatic or  just mildly ill.  The classic example is polio, in which for every case with paralysis there were 99 cases with mild GI illness or nothing at all.

This will need to wait until we can test people for antibodies to 2019-nCOV to find out how many people have had it.  This is probably at least a month away

Vaccines (if they can be made) are even more months away.  We’ll just have to hunker down and hope for the best.

Why lay in dried food ?– in a pandemic people will panic and clear out all food they can get their hands on.  There were pictures of empty bins in a Wuhan food market last week.

People are getting serious about it.  From Reuters -“U.S. President Donald Trump offered China whatever help it needed on Monday”.  It would be nice to have some of our people from the Center for Disease Control over there. Hopefully the Chinese won’t be too proud to accept the offer.

Addendum 28 Jan — apparently the US (in the form of the CDC) is begging China to let them help out — sad — why should they have to beg?  Apparently the first overture was 3 weeks ago ! ! ! ! — https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3047967/china-coronavirus-washington-asks-beijing-permission-send-health-team