Tag Archives: Pandemic coronavirus

Death rates from coronavirus drop in half 2 months after Georgia loosens lockdown restrictions

There were apocalyptic predictions of doom when Georgia loosened its lockdown restrictions against the pandemic coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 on 25 April.  Here they are

From The Atlantic — “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice — The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy.” — https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/

A month later (25 May) not much had happened —

7 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 25 April — 740

7 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 13 May — 525 (the state allows 14 days for all the data to roll in, so the last date they regard as having secure numbers is the 7th of May and here the number is 539)

7 day moving averages of deaths from COVID19 ending 25 April — 35

7 day moving average of deaths from COVID19 ending 13 May — 24 (the state allows 14 days for all the data to roll in, so the last date they regard as having secure numbers is the 7th of May and here the number is 27).

Back on 25 May I wrote “People who assumed (on purely correlative evidence) that lockdowns prevented new cases, and that lifting them would cause a marked increase in new cases and deaths, are clearly wrong.  It’s possible that cases will spike in the future proving them right, but pretty unlikely.  It’s only fair to give the doomsayers a sporting chance and followup is planned in a month.”

So here’s the followup.   The 7 day moving average of daily deaths had dropped to 17 as of 11 June.  Remember Georgia waits 14 days as data filters in to regard the numbers as definitive.  Here’s the link — https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

So the death rate from COVID-19 dropped in half 2 months after Georgia loosened some of the lockdown restrictions.

There are only two useful statistics in all of this.  The moving average of the daily death rate and the number of COVID19 cases in the hospital.  I no longer follow the number of new cases, because they include people with a positive antibody test (all of whom have recovered).  We know that most cases are asymptomatic.  It’s very hard to get the second number of people sick in the hospital with COVID19 (I’ve tried with no luck).  COVID19 used to mean that you were sick — no longer, it now counts positive antibody tests, rendering the number relatively useless.  By choosing who to test, numbers can be easily inflated — https://luysii.wordpress.com/2020/06/22/new-york-city-covid-19-cases-spiked-today-stock-market-futures-tank/

Daily death rates are great for cherry picking scare headlines — it’s worth looking at this article from Tampa — https://www.wtsp.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/florida-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-deaths/67-4bbd0c35-6742-4f51-a59a-ea1d101f54ea

It contains a great figure with the number of deaths each day from March onward on which is superimposed the moving average — the range is from 10 to 100.  Even more impressive is the fall on weekends and the rise during the week.

Fortunately, every Friday  Florida releases the weekly results for antibody testing, so we’ll be able to see how many of these new cases of COVID19 are people who have recovered from it.

Here’s another link — well worth looking at — with the number of new cases in Florida in one graph (with the marked increase in the past week) and the number of death from the disease just below.  The deaths in the past week are the lowest they’ve been in a month — https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

A Tale of Two States (with apologies to Dickens), the denouemont

Two days I posted the following puzzle — here is the answer and a bit more

A friend in med school, a classic University of Chicago graduate, was fond of saying “that’s how it works in practice, but how does it work in theory?”

Well, this country is currently in the midst of an immense social experiment (lockdowns) essentially based on theory (models).

We’re about to find out how it worked in practice.

Here are some recent statistics from two states.

State 1

3 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 25 April — 2778

3 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 13 May — 901

3 day moving average of daily deaths from COVID19 ending 25 April — 177

3 day moving average of daily deaths from COVID19 ending 13 May9 — 96

 

State 2

7 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 25 April — 740

7 day moving average of new cases of COVID19 ending 13 May — 525 (the state allows 14 days for all the data to roll in, so the last date they regard as having secure numbers is the 7th of May and here the number is 539)

7 day moving averages of deaths from COVID19 ending 25 April — 35

7 day moving average of deaths from COVID19 ending 13 May — 24 (the state allows 14 days for all the data to roll in, so the last date they regard as having secure numbers is the 7th of May and here the number is 27).

One state loosened its lockdown restrictions 25 April, the other had them in effect through 13 May.  Your job is to figure out which one did and which one didn’t.

The denouement — State 1 is Massachusetts (which kept the lockdown) and State 2 is Georgia which loosened them on the 25th of April.

As usual, actual data answers some questions but raises new ones.  Contrary to the disasters predicted (see later), in Georgia the new cases of symptomatic pandemic flu declined by 29% and the number of deaths declined by 22%.  The 13th of May is way past the longest possible incubation period for cases beginning prior to 1 May.  So from this, the conclusion one might draw is that the lockdown was ineffective.

But hold on. Massachusetts also showed declines in new cases and deaths, and by greater amounts 68% and 46% than Georgia (29 and 22%)  implying the lockdown was of some use (in accelerating the decline in cases and death).

Pandemics and epidemics have a natural history of peak and decline, in the USA our pandemic is on the decline.

People who assumed (on purely correlative evidence) that lockdowns prevented new cases, and that lifting them would cause a marked increase in new cases and deaths, are clearly wrong.  It’s possible that cases will spike in the future proving them right, but pretty unlikely.  It’s only fair to give the doomsayers a sporting chance and followup is planned in a month.

Here are a few predictions of doom.  Future predictions and definitive statements from these sources should be taken with a grain or more of salt.

From The Atlantic — “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice — The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy.” — https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/why-georgia-reopening-coronavirus-pandemic/610882/

Georgia is the canary in the coal mine

The decision of the Georgia governor to relax some restrictions on activity and commerce 25 April was not met with universal acclaim.  In fact here’s how an article in the usually rather stolid The Atlantic puts it

       “Georgia’s Experiment in Human Sacrifice

The state is about to find out how many people need to lose their lives to shore up the economy.”

The presidential election will be decided in the next month — revision for clarity

Apologies to all for the previous post which was far murkier than it could have been.  The problem was that a ‘case’ of the pandemic coronavirus can mean 3 very different things.  These distinctions are tedious but crucial.

Meaning #1 — COVID19 — People who are clinically ill with the virus (official name SARS-CoV-2).  These are the people that  may die of the illness, although most do not.

Meaning #2 — The viral genome has been found in your saliva.

Meaning #3 — You have antibodies to the virus in your blood.

Here is the distinction between #2 and #3 — Antibodies (proteins) and genomes (RNA) are completely different chemically. Finding the actual genome (RNA in this case) of a virus in an individual  is like seeing a real bear up close and personal.  This can do you some damage.  In contrast, antibodies to the virus are made by an individual who has been infected by the virus in the past.       Antibodies are like seeing the tracks of the bear without the bear itself. You can’t see tracks without the bear having been present at some point in the past.  Antibodies mean you were infected at some point whether you knew it or not.

OK, so here’s another shot at what was I saying in the previous post.

I find it very sad that loosening the restrictions on activity has become so political. The left says that it will be a disaster and that cases and deaths will spike (meaning #1). As far as I’ve seen, they never say they hope they’re wrong.  The right says that deaths will continue, but the rate won’t increase.  There is evidence for both sides, but in the coming months we’ll actually have data one way or the other.

One thing is certain.  The number of cases of positive viral culture (meaning #2) will increase.  It has to because more people will be tested. So far, we’ve only studied around 1/1,000 of the population.  No one has ever said the lockdown will prevent new infection.  It hasn’t, but it has slowed things down.

I’m hoping that cases of COVID19 and death will not explode.  Not because I want Trump to win, but because getting people back to work  would be good for the country.  Should that happen, the anger of those who lost their jobs or businesses during the shutdown will be formidable.  Trump will win.

Should deaths from COVID19 explode (meaning #1) as restrictions are lifted, Trump is toast.

We should also get some idea of the percentage of the population who have been infected (manifest by antibodies to the pandemic virus meaning #3).  It almost certainly will increase, unless those already showing the antibodies lose them (which is unheard of happening this fast inFor  the antibodies we’ve studied in the past).

I’m cautiously optimistic that not much will happen when restrictions are eased. Here’s why.  All the studies on antibodies (meaning #3) done so far show they are 10 – 100 times more prevalent than cases where the virus is cultured (meaning #2).  For example 20% of Manhattan sampled population have the antibodies.  This implies that most infections with the pandemic coronavirus are asymptomatic.  

Another viral disease with a high prevalence of antibodies is infectious mononucleosis.  90% of adults in the USA have antibodies to mono, but far fewer than 90% were ever sick.

So the number of cases with positive culture (meaning #2)  isn’t what’s important.  It’s how many of them get sick with COVID19 (meaning # 1).  I think we have very good past statistics on the number of deaths and cases of COVID19   It will be clear if there is a spike in COVID19.

However be careful not to read too much into the first week’s statistics after restrictions are lifted, as there is a lag period of 2 – 11 days between infection and clinical illness.  Also try to understand which of the 3 meanings of “case” the article you are reading is talking about — this won’t always be possible.