Tag Archives: How many of the unvaccinated have been asymptomatically infected?

Are the antiVaxers already relatively immune?

As delta, omicron and god knows what other Greek letter variant of the pandemic virus marches through our population, it is time to find out how many of the unvaccinated have actually been infected asymptomatically.  It could well be most of them.  Studies done July 2020, a year and a half ago in New York State (before we even had vaccines) showed high levels of antibodies to the virus.

Do distinguish what an antibody to the virus means from a positive PCR or antigen test.  A positive antibody test means you’ve been infected with the virus at some point — almost certainly it’s long gone (the footprint of the bear is not the actual bear — sounds like Zen).  A positive antigen or PCR test means that the virus is within you now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.

Note the date — July of 2020.   Clearly most of these people did not require hospitalization.

So it’s time to look for antibodies in the never vaccinateds (there is no point in looking at the already vaccinated as they should have them).  If the never vaccinated antibody rate is as high as I think it is (>80%), it’s time to stop the lockdowns, the maskings, and the school closures.  Why — because they’ve already been infected and fought off the virus.

It is clear that vaccination will not keep you out of the hospital.

At the end of 25 January the state of Massachusetts had 2,617 people in the hospital with COVID19, 405 in the ICU and 248 intubated.  Half of them are described by the department of Health are described as ‘fully vaccinated’  (which just means 2 shots as of their definition of September 2021 — clearly this should be updated).   Probably almost all of these are with omicron.

Although this is bad, it represents a drop from 3,192, 466 and 290 just a week ago.

I doubt that such a study will be done, but it would be useful.

Addendum  Science 28 January 2022  p. 387.  Well how wrong could I be . “A serosurvey he led in Gauteng province, home to one-quarter of South Africa’s population, showed close to 70% of unvaccinated people carried SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the start of the Omicron wave. In the next survey, he expects that number to have gone up to at least 85%, a level that should prepare South Africa for a post-Omicron future.”

Second Addendum 28 January 2022 — Here’s a link to (and a bit more about)  the paper on which the proceeding paragraph was based — It’s not peer-reviewed yet, but it’s from the S. African Medical Research Council, so it is likely to be valid. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21268096v1.full.pdf

The serosurvey was recent (22 October – 9 December 2021) and just before omicron hit the country.   Only 1,319 of the 7,010 people in the study were vaccinated.  An amazing 70% of the unvaccinated were seropositive (had antibodies to the pandemic virus).  As (not quite expected) the vaccinated had a higher seropositive rate (93%) but I thought it would be higher.

This is exactly the sort of study carried out in New York, where the testers went out and grabbed people to get a sample of what was actually going on in the population at large which makes it highly likely to be valid.  We should do a similar study in the USA.

What would really be terrific (but I don’t think it exists yet) would be a test for antibodies to omicron which distinguishes them from antibodies to older SARS-CoV-2 variants.

There is some evidence that vaccination protects against severe infections with omicron, so leave that to the unvaccinated, and leave the rest of us alone.