China again — as usual Dr. Leung called it

4000+ cases (defined as the presence of the viral genome in the nose and mouth) of the pandemic virus were found in Hong Kong today, with 7000 more ‘pending’ due to the labs being swamped.

Here’s Gabriel Leung M. D. former Hong Kong medical school dean 5 January ’22 in the South China Morning Post

“Fellow government adviser Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s faculty of medicine, told a radio programme there were “probably five to 10 invisible transmission chains in the community. It’s a very alarming situation”.

That day there were 38 cases of COVID19 in Hong Kong.  Some of them had the omicron variant (if not all).

Aside from the higher infectivity of the omicron variant of the virus, there are several other potential reasons for the rapidity of spread in Hong Kong.

(1) Extremely high population density in Hong Kong — it’s beautiful, it’s mountainous and there is very little buildable land.  Moreover 50% of the population of 7+ million lives in public housing in large multistory rather thin apartment buildings.

(2) Low levels of  vaccination among the most vulnerable (the elderly)

(3) I’ve previously worried about the absence of endemic spread of the virus due to their zero covid policy.  Here’s why

A serosurvey he led in Gauteng province, home to one-quarter of South Africa’s population, showed close to 70% of unvaccinated people carried SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the start of the Omicron wave. In the next survey, he expects that number to have gone up to at least 85%, a level that should prepare South Africa for a post-Omicron future.”

Here’s a link to (and a bit more about)  the paper on which the proceeding paragraph was based — It’s not peer-reviewed yet, but it’s from the S. African Medical Research Council, so it is likely to be valid. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.20.21268096v1.full.pdf

This may be why omicron peaked and nearly disappeared in a few months in S. Africa.  The population was already semi-immune.

There is nothing like this in China.  They are immunologic virgins as far as the pandemic goes.

China is likely going to be playing whack a mole with the virus for the forseeable future as the virus pops up in city after city.

I’m not sure what type of vaccine the population of Hong Kong actually received despite several internet searches.  My son over there got the Pfizer.

Good luck to them all.  I expect lockdowns and food rationing shortly.

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Comments

  • MStriker  On February 17, 2022 at 5:10 pm

    Considering China’s attempts to stifle any appearance of NCOV-19 after the initial surge, I am leery of labeling the Chinese as immunologic virgins. (I did not believe their sudden drop from “probably millions of cases” to “only 1635 cases”.) Due to the sparseness of actual data from China (so far as I am aware), we could see an epic crisis, a notable surge, or a small blip. Were I a conspiracist, I would point out both the lack of data and the increased presence of China in Africa. (Hopefully, “nuff said”.)

  • nikita yakubovich  On February 17, 2022 at 5:17 pm

    they use sinovack vaccine – whole virus inactivated

    • luysii  On February 17, 2022 at 6:23 pm

      Nikita — that’s helpful thanks. For some reason I couldn’t find this info. When you mean ‘they’ I assume you mean Hong Kong. As I said my son (an expat) received he Pfizer vaccine

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