Tomorrow Cassava Sciences will announce the interim results of an open label trial of its Alzheimer drug Sumafilam in 50 patients receiving the drug for 9 months. Should you buy the stock today?
The stock (symbol SAVA) has had a huge run this year starting at 7 and closing yesterday 27 July ’21 at 127.50.
I’ve been interested in the stock for several reasons
l. As a neurologist, I’ve watched patients, family members and friends deteriorate and die, being totally unable to help them.
2. I’ve known one of the principals in the company since she was a teenager in Montana — Lindsay Burns https://luysii.wordpress.com/2021/02/02/montana-girl-does-good-real-good/
3. Sumafilam is thought to work by a completely different mechanism of action than previous approaches (all of which have failed to produce a useful drug)– https://luysii.wordpress.com/2021/03/25/the-science-behind-cassava-sciences-sava/
In fact some of these therapies have actually made Alzheimer’s worse [ Nature Reviews Drug Discovery vol. 18 p. 327 ’19 ]
Tomorrow’s results should move the stock significantly. If there is no improvement in cognition the stock will plummet. If there is improvement the stock should soar, at least double again. Why? Because we have no useful therapy. Forget Biogen’s drug Aduhelm — the FDA advisory committee resigned in protest after the drug was approved, as the evidence for help was minimal at best.
Of course I’m rooting for the drug as a clinician and as a friend of Lindsay.
There is some evidence that the results tomorrow will show that the drug helps
“A prior analysis after six months showed patients taking Cassava’s medication had a 10% improvement on cognition and 29% improvement on an inventory of dementia-related behavior, like delusions and anxiety.
The author of the article didn’t realize just how unprecedented these results are. The numbers of patients (50) and the time (6 months) are long enough to make statistical fluke unlikely.
It is even possible that the patients will continue to improve — from the 6 month results, in which case the stock will go bananas.
Here’s why.
This isn’t in the books, but there is a precedent for continued improvement on Sumafilam based on my clinical experience with Parkinson’s disease.
I was one of the first docs able to prescribe L-DOPA for Parkinsonism in 9/70. L-DOPA was released in the USA that month, after unconsciounable delay by the FDA. I’d just left the Air Force and was starting to finish up my neurology residency at the University of Colorado. The chief (James Austin) called me in and tasked me with setting up the brand new L-DOPA clinic.
We didn’t know what the drug would do, so we proceeded very cautiously. Giving a little, watching, waiting, giving a little more, watching, waiting. Wash rinse repeat. The results were dramatic, as (like current therapy for Alzheimer’s disease), previous therapy was lousy.
What became apparent to me, was that patients continued to improve ON THE SAME DOSE. One of the mistakes GPs would make in subsequent years was increasing the dose quickly, since improvement was continuing (on the theory that if a little is good more would be better). This pushed patients into toxicity (reversible fortunately).
Something similar happens with all the antidepressants we have (except the ketamine derivatives). You almost never see improvement in the first week or two.
Do I know what tomorrow’s results will be? Do I have inside information? No. Both my wife’s parents had decades long careers at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and I well know how they regard trading on inside information.
So these thoughts are just educated guesses. If you are trying to decide whether or not to buy the stock, I hope they will be helpful to you. Full disclosure: I do have a small position in the stock and am anxiously awaiting tomorrow’s results.
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