A bombshell that wasn’t

Yesterday, a friend sent me the following

” Chinese Coronavirus Is a Man Made Virus According to Luc Montagnier the Man Who Discovered HIV

Contrary to the narrative that is being pushed by the mainstream that the COVID 19 virus was the result of a natural mutation and that it was transmitted to humans from bats via pangolins, Dr Luc Montagnier the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983 disagrees and is saying that the virus was man made.”

Pretty impressive isn’t it?  Montagnier says that in the 30,000 nucleotide sequence of the new coronovirus SARS-CoV-2 he found sequences of the AIDS virus (HIV1).  Worse, the biolab in Wuhan was working both on HIV1 and coronaviruses.  It seems remote that a human could have been simultaneously infected with both, but these things happen all the time in the lab, intentionally or not.

It really wouldn’t take much to prove Montagnier’s point.  Matching 20 straight nucleotides from HIV1 to the Wuhan coronavirus is duck soup now that we have the sequences of both.  HIV1 has a genome with around 10,000 nucleotides, and the Wuhan coronavirus has a genome of around 30,000.  Recall that each nucleotide can be one of 4 things: A, U, G, C.  In the genome the nucleotides are ordered, and differences in the order mean different things — consider the two words united and untied.

Suppose Montagnier found a 20 nucleotide sequence from HIV1 in the new coronavirus genome. How many possibilities are there for such a sequence?  Well for a 2 nucleotide sequence there are 4 x 4 == 4^2 = 16,  for a 3 nucleotide sequence 4 x 4 x 4 == 4^3 = 64.  So for 20 nucleotides there are 4^20 possible sequences == 1,099,511,622,776 different possibilities.  So out of the HIV1 genome there are 10,000 – 20 such sequences, and in the coronavirus sequence there are 30,000 -20  such sequences so there are 10,000 times 30,000 ways for a 20 nucleotide sequence to match up between the two genomes.  That 300,000,000 ways for a match to occur by chance — or less than .1%.  If you’re unsatisfied with those odds than make the match larger.  25 nucleotides should satisfy the most skeptical.

But there’s a rub — as Carl Sagan has said  “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”  Apparently Montagnier hasn’t published the sequence of HIV1 he claims to have found in the coronavirus.   If anyone knows what it is please write a comment.

Then there’s the fact that Montagnier appears to have gone off his rocker. In 2009 he published a  paper (in a journal he apparently built) which concludes that diluted DNA from pathogenic bacterial and viral species is able to emit specific radio waves” and that “these radio waves [are] associated with ‘nanostructures’ in the solution that might be able to recreate the pathogen”.

Sad.  Just as one of the greatest chemists of the 20th century will be remembered for his crackpot ideas about vitamin C (Linus Pauling), Montagnier may be remembered for this.

On second thought, there is no reason to need Montagnier and his putative sequence at all. The sequences of both genomes are known.     Matching any 20 nucleotide sequence from HIV1 to any of the 30,000 – 20 20 nucleotide sequences from the Wuhan flu is a problem right out of Programming 101.  It’s a matter of a few loops, if thens and go to’s.  . If you’re ambitious  you could start with smaller sequences say 5 – 10 nucleotides, find a match, move to the next largest size sequence and repeat until you find the largest contiguous sequence of nucleotides in HIV1 to be found in the coronavirus.

You can read about the Wuhan lab in an article from Nature in 2017 — https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487

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Comments

  • Harold  On April 20, 2020 at 6:58 pm

    I agree that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and I also suspect that Montagnier’s assertion will not hold water. However, I don’t follow your math and was hoping you could clarify.

    I agree that for a 20-nucleotide sequence, the total number of possible matches between the two genomes is (10,000-20)*(30,000-20) ~= 300,000,000. But how are you getting that this is less than 0.1% likelihood to occur by random chance? Are you dividing 300 million by the total number of possible 20-nucleotide sequences (4^20)? So 300 million/1 trillion? If so, that doesn’t make sense to me. 

    Imagine we’re instead only trying to match a 4-nucleotide sequence (something that certainly DOES happen by random chance). If I’m following the math correctly, the total number of possible matches is still ~ 300 million, but then the total number of possible sequences is just 4^4 = 256. So then the probability is 300,000,000/256 >> 100%, which doesn’t make any sense. Am I missing something obvious here?

    In any case, it doesn’t change the conclusions.

  • luysii  On April 20, 2020 at 9:50 pm

    Harold: Thanks for commenting

    I get under 1% chance of a match because the total number of possible 20 nucleotide sequences is 1,099,511,622,776, and the 300,000,000 matches you have tested for is under 1% of that number.

    Also look at the post again, as I’ve updated it

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