Carly ‘s Cancer

Today Senator Cruz said that Carly Fiorina would be his running mate, should he get the republican nomination. It’s worth reposting (with a few modifications) what I wrote last September about her cancer when it looked like she had a chance of getting the nomination. See the end for why the health problems of our leaders are problems for us all.

Carly Florina had breast cancer surgery (bilateral mastectomy) 2 March 2009 at Stanford University Hospital followed by chemotherapy and radiation. She was given an excellent prognosis for full recovery — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carly_Fiorina.

So far so good and it’s just over 7 years. But it is reasonable to ask just what her prognosis really is, particularly as she may be our next vice-president. I asked an old friend and colleague who has been involved in research on breast cancer and in many of the clinical trials of therapy over the past 35 years.

So I wrote the following — I’m writing you for some idea what the chances of someone with breast cancer being free for 6+ years (Carly’s surgery was 2/09) will be free for the next 5+? I know that there are all sorts of statistics on survival in breast cancer (because the cohort is so large). If anyone would know them, it would be you.

and got this back

Impossible to answer your question. Too many variables and NO DATA or info. Many people, docs and patients alike call ductal carcinoma in situ,” cancer” but cure rate is 99%. If she was one of those then, of course, she’s likely to be cured . Stage 1 ,luminal A tumors (even though real cancers) have excellent prognoses—probably > 90% cured. For other real cancers Lots depend on stage, hormone receptors ad infinitum. On thin ice lumping anyone into a broad statement without lots more info

just what you’d expect from an circumspect intelligent expert

So I dug a bit more and sent him this

I tried to find out just what type of breast cancer Carly had. No luck, but various newspaper articles show that she did receive postop chemo causing her hair to fall out as well as radiation. Would ductal carcinoma in situ (Dcis) be treated this way? Would stage 1 luminal A tumors be treated this way?

He replied

Dcis definitely no. luminal a probably shouldn’t be. Sounds like a significant cancer. Next issue is did she get antihormonal therapy. Estrogen receptor tumors are the ones that tend to relapse after 5 years. ER neg. tumors while more aggressive overall seldom recur >5 yrs after dx. The radiation part doesn’t mean much unless she had a mastectomy since all lumpectomy patients get radiation. – If she had mastectomy and chemo and radiation it was probably a poorer risk tumor. Even chemo might not be so bad—–we give chemo to node neg tumors which could end up with very good long term prognosis.AMONG RELAPSES in ER pos pts. 15% recur before year 5 and 17% recur after year 5. However overall likelihood of relapse depends on whether or not she had positive or negative nodes and was ER + or Neg. Sorry to be so wordy but prognosis has been improving steadily. I would guestimate that we’re curing about 70% of women with newly diagnosed breast cancer—excluding dcis who are virtually all cured.

I realized that I’d neglected to tell him that she’d had a bilateral mastectomy as well and got the following back after I did.

If she indeed had radiation after a mastectomy as well as chemo it speaks for a more aggressive presentation. Rule of thumb—-post mastectomy xrt reserved for patients with > 4 positive nodes or tumors >5 cm in size. Today, many are giving post mastectomy xrt to 1-3 positive nodes although that was very controversial for years . newer data impies benefit. So, just guessing, but she probably had positive nodes—a poorer prognostic sign for long term—but only if she was estrogen receptor pos. as noted in prior email.

So there you have it — she’s fortunately well presently, but the tumor and prognosis doesn’t sound that good. Still unknown are histologic type of the tumor, presence or absence of spread to lymph nodes (and if so how many), estrogen receptor positivity, which would certainly give us a better idea of her ultimate prognosis (and the country’s should she become president).

I take no pleasure in any of these posts. https://luysii.wordpress.com/2016/04/24/why-hillary-clinton-had-a-stroke-in-2012/ Both Carly and Hillary are brilliant women it would be an honor to know and I wish them both the best. FYI Hillary was valedictorian of her class at Wellesley.

So why write about their potential health problems? Look at the sad saga of Hugo Chavez who claimed he was cured in July elected in the fall with death before he could take office in March of the following year — see https://luysii.wordpress.com/2013/03/05/q-e-d/. Also consider the last months in office of Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt and the results of the League of Nations and the Yalta conference when they were both impaired.

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