Saepe falsus, sed numquam dubitans — “Sometimes wrong but never in doubt” should be on the Heraldic crest of Paul Krugman. He certainty came to mind at around noon today 20 Jan ’16 with oil breaking $27/barrel and the Dow down 550.
Here are two direct quotes from him as he held forth on the Opinion pages of the New York Times back in 2010.
“Conventional oil production has been flat for four years; in that sense, at least, peak oil has arrived.”
“So what are the implications of the recent rise in commodity prices? It is, as I said, a sign that we’re living in a finite world, one in which resource constraints are becoming increasingly binding.”
Name a commodity price that’s been rising.
He is, after all, a Nobel laureate in economics, a tenured Princeton professor, blah, blah, blah. You should take everything he writes with much salt even though, despite all this, he’s as certain as ever. It seems with such a disastrous track record that the Times could find someone better.
Here is a link to the entire column — see for yourself. http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=0
A thank you to my niece Ruth Loop for providing the translation
Addendum 20 Jan ’16 — An unenviable economic prediction from the laureate in economics
- “Ricardo’s Difficult Idea,” in G. Cook (ed.), Freedom and Trade: The Economics and Politics of International Trade, Volume 2 (1998)
- By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet‘s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s