Where are the hurricanes?

For the past few years, every time there was a severe storm, tornado, or a hurricane the global warming crowd would inform us that this was to be expected from global warming and that it would only get worse as things heated up.   The term climate change came into use, because, up until this year there had been no significant change in earth’s temperature for a decade, and some sea surface temperatures were actually cooler.

Well, he who lives by the model, dies by it.  This year we finally have a very hot year, so the hurricane season should have been horrendous.

There has been 1 hurricane, and it is now 14 August, smack in the middle of the season. Even the few storms we’ve had have been puny.  Here they are

Alberto — A tropical storm which formed off the coast of S. Carolina, and held even this weak category for a mere 54 hours from 19 – 21 May

Beryl — A tropical storm – again off the Carolinas, lasting all of 39 hours

Chris — Another tropical storm — but hardly tropical, as if formed in the ocean North of Maine, and lasting 2 days

Debby — Tropical storm  lasting 3 days — at least it was what a normal person would call tropical, occurring in the Gulf of Mexico

Ernesto — Tropical storm — lasted from 1 to 7 August — I don’t think it ever made it to a hurricane.  Jaffar (see comments) said it did become a hurricane just before landfall — thanks Jaffar


Florence — Tropical storm — lasted 2 days, mostly near Africa, never got halfway across the Atlantic

Pretty small beer.

As of 14 August  — they’re watching something about 1500 miles East of Florida, which the predictions show turning around and heading toward Spain.

So the global warming model is 50% right this year — hardly confidence inspiring.

Tropical Depressions have maximum winds under 39 miles/per/hour

Topical Storms have winds between 39 and 73,

Category 1 Hurricanes have winds between 74 and 95 mph

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  • Jaffar  On August 15, 2012 at 10:15 am

    Ernesto did become a hurricane shortly before it hit the Yucatan Peninsula around the Quintana Roo area. It caused some damage but thankfully nothing catastrophic.

  • Patrick  On August 18, 2012 at 7:10 pm

    Don’t you need layers of both hot air and cold air to power a hurricane?

  • Curious Wavefunction  On August 22, 2012 at 9:07 am

    The fact that models don’t predict individual events is not necessarily a strike against them. There are other problems with climate and biomolecular models, but lack of prediction of individual events may still mask relatively robust average predictive capabilities.

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